Stake For Dinner: How Government Deals Have Impacted Stocks
There are some tradeable themes to the government deals we've seen in the last year
Last year was the year of the TACO trade, when investors realized they could trade the market fluctuations from President Donald Trump’s back-and-forth on tariffs.
Tacos are so last year, though. 2026 is the year of the steak.
No, not those steaks. Stakes! The U.S. government has spent the last 12 months taking stake in a slew of different publicly-traded companies.
We’re not here to debate the ethics of this, or the Marxist irony. This is not political, this is profitable. We’re here to track the paper trail, the subsequent stock performance, and see if there’s any quantitative utility from these deals.
It all started with US Steel last June. Domestic rare earth companies made their move shortly after. Then Intel last August drew headlines. Dell Technologies took a ticket. Earlier this month, it was quantum computing’s turn. And just this past week, drones got in on the action.
It seems like every high-beta growth stock that’s enamored a retail trader in the last year has been courted by the U.S. government.
News outlets break the story, the stocks melt up, and everyone’s happy. Right? Where are these stocks now? Is there really a Trump bump? Can you just tail the U.S. government and walk away a successful trader?
Shocker, but the answer isn’t as easy as that.
The Council on Foreign Relations already detailed this timeline. For our sake, we’re focusing on the stock movement.
June 18, 2025: U.S. Steel (X) & the ‘Golden Share’
U.S. Steel was officially sold to Nippon on this day, so we obviously can’t quantify its impact. Sector peers Steel Dynamics (STLD), while Nucor (NUE) are some of the best-performing stocks in the last 12 months. But the government doesn’t have actual stake in them, so this is a moot point.
July 10, 2025: MP Materials (MP)
MP links up with the Department of Defense to become the company’s largest shareholder. The stock adds 50% that day. MP trades as high as $100.25 on Oct. 14, but now sits at $64.23.
August 22, 2025: Intel (INTC)
The administration took a 9.9% equity stake in the U.S.-based chipmaker. INTC gains 5.5%, eclipsing $25, which at that time was a BFD. Now, Intel stock trades at $120.89.
September 30, 2025: Lithium Americas (LAC)
The U.S. Department of Energy took a 5% stake in LAC, which promptly gapped higher by 23.3%. The stock traded as high as $10.51 in mid October but now trades at $5.05.
January 13, 2026: L3 Harris Technologies (LHX)
Through the Pentagon, the um, Department of War took a $1 billion equity stake in L3Harris Technologies’ critical rocket motor and missile solutions business. LHX only gained 0.5% the day after the news and is actually lower from there today.
Jan. 24, 2026: USA Rare Earth (USAR)
The administration takes a 10% equity stake in USA Rare Earth (USAR) to wean off China’s dominance in the market. USAR pops 7.8% on that Monday the 26, and had added 9.1% on the Friday before, when the rumors had started. Sector peer MP actually shed 8.8% on the news.
On Feb. 2, the Trump Administration announced a $12 billion minerals stockpile to counter China, sending the whole sector up. The stock traded as high as $32.07, and now sits at $28.19.
May 21, 2026: Quantum Computing
The Department of Commerce signed letters signaling $2 billion in grants to nine quantum computing companies, including U.S. government equity stakes. IBM (IBM) got $1 billion, while D-Wave (QBTS), Rigetti Computing (RGTI), and Infleqtion (INFQ) got a cool $100 million each.
IBM gained 12.4% that day. QBTS, RGTI, INFQ added 33%, 30.5%, and 31.5%, respectively.
May 27, 2026: Dell Technologies (DELL)
On Wednesday night, Dell nabbed a $9.7 billion contract by the Pentagon to provide a suite of software to the U.S. military. The shares added 3.8% Thursday.
Then, DELL melted up by 33% on Friday after a stellar earnings triple play. Trump and CEO Michael Dell have been courting each other for some time now.
May 28, 2026: Red Cat Holdings (RCAT)
On Thursday, the Wall Street Journal reported the Trump administration was in talks to fund U.S. drone companies. Red Cat stock added 32%, but shed 10% on Friday to end the week.
There’s also the small little matter of Donald Trump Jr’s Unusual Machines (UMAC) adding 57.2% on Thursday, but we’ll save that for another day. ;)
Below is a table tracking the stakes and price actions. I present STAKE, the Stock Tally After Key Equity.
A few takeaways:
This list could be mistaken for a Reddit traders’ portfolio.
The government stake bet, or Trump bump, is not foolproof. LAC, LHX, QBTS, RGTI, and RCAT are lower since their respective announcements. Pretty noteworthy considering the single-day pops the quantum kids made. However..
The year-over-year gains are healthy across the board. Gotta give the quantum and drone stocks some time to see if they straighten out. Easier said than done though.
Rare earth, lithium, drones, quantum, computer hardware. The administration is very transparent at what it values at the moment, and that’s American infrastructure exceptionalism. Anything that can give the U.S. a leg up, this administration is going after.
Of those sectors, quantum, lithium, drones, and rare earths are all high beta and heavily shorted. That’s probably not a coincidence. Even DELL had a SI/F, as we’ve documented, that made it ripe for a short squeeze.
Intel, which is never really shorted, was trading at a 18-year lows of $18.96 in August and viewed as a massive ‘buy-low’ opportunity. Be on the lookout for American institutions that are beaten down that could use a government life raft (cough bailout). Looking at you, Nike (NKE)
Predictions market hub Polymarket is taking bets on who gets the Trump Stake next, with IonQ (IONQ) and Micron seeing notable attention. If you really want to tail, track the man himself, per his holdings. The President name-dropped Micron Technology (MU), and the stock still hasn’t come down to earth, up 75% in May.
Among three dozen transactions valued between $1 million and $5 million in the first quarter of 2026, Trump bought securities of ServiceNow, Nvidia, Adobe, Microsoft, Oracle, Broadcom, Motorola, Amazon, Texas Instruments and Dell, the filings show.
—https://www.cnbc.com/kevin-breuninger/, CNBC
Right on cue, Sherwood News dropped a study on Thursday about retail traders making stock picking look easy.
If these guys follow the government paper trail, odds are that in a bull market, they’re going to keep outperforming.