Market Madness: Which Stock Wins the Big Dance?
What better way to celebrate March Madness with a bracket of 64 stocks?
It is unequivocally the best time of the year for sports fans, a welcome respite from the brutal headlines we’ve had lately. We need a distraction now more than ever.
*Gregg Gumbel voice: Cue the March Madness music!
Filling out brackets has been a formative part of my life since I was eight. At the risk of sounding grandiose, March Madness represents society’s pinnacle of collaboration, discussion, and community. You could have watched zero (0) college hoops and still participate. There’s joy, pain, and stress, all ingredients to a full life. And the parallels to investing are striking. Let’s get to it.
Welcome to Schaeffer’s Market Madness, an interactive bracket of 64 stocks. I created the field by sorting through average volume over 5 million, current volume over 2 million, and a minimum market cap of $2 billion.
We’ll go through the first round today, the second round next week, etc. All leading up to One Shining Moment, Luther Vandross’ finest work and something that will always bring a tear to my eye, no matter how good UConn did that year.
Picking is simple: which stock is set up better for an June standard expiration call?
I weighed a variety of factors, ranging from options pricing, technical support, contrarian potential, and general eye test.
And here is the link to fill your own out!
Schaeffer’s Market Madness 2026 Market Madness
Here’s my fanalysis of the first round:
Delta Region
#1 NVDA 0.00%↑ vs. #16 RGTI 0.00%↑
Nvidia hasn’t acted like a one seed in 2026. Quantum stocks are interesting, but outmatched.
#8 MSTR 0.00%↑ vs. #9 PYPL 0.00%↑
Do we have to pick one? Both have stunk up the joint lately. MSTR options are cheaper right now, and there’s short squeeze potential.
#5 VZ 0.00%↑ vs. #12 CDE 0.00%↑
VZ has quietly been on a heater, up 24% year to date but nearing overbought territory. Gold miners have cooled off. Both have technical support in place. Going with VZ to avoid that double top formation CDE has formed.
#4 BAC 0.00%↑ vs. #13 IONQ 0.00%↑
A tale of two pullbacks. I’d rather buy the dip on something more established, as enticing as IONQ is. If there’s some massive quantum computing breakthrough, I’m going Dan Hurley on my computer.
#6 NOW 0.00%↑ vs. #11 SOFI 0.00%↑
Both have high implied volatility (IV), so you’ll have to pay up. Don’t love either stock’s setup, but more confident in SoFi uncoiling a little.
#3 ORCL 0.00%↑ vs. #14 SNAP 0.00%↑
Quite the post-earnings pop from Oracle. Don’t overthink it.
#7 SLB 0.00%↑ vs. #10 KVUE 0.00%↑
Picking an upset here off (possible misplaced) consumer staple optimism for the summer. Oil wins the regular season, but like Jon Rothstein, could be asleep in May.
#2 AMZN 0.00%↑ vs. #15 PATH 0.00%↑
Moving right along. UiPath isn’t Lehigh.
Gamma Region
#1 AAPL 0.00%↑ vs. #16 RIOT 0.00%↑
RIOT is just happy to be here.
#8 CMG 0.00%↑ vs. #9 RKLB 0.00%↑
To me, Rocket Lab stock is underseeded, even if shorts have been thoroughly squeezed (SI/F only 3%). Both stocks’ options cost a pretty penny right now. I’m buying a macro headline for Rocket Lab in the coming months.
#5 T 0.00%↑ vs. #12 HL 0.00%↑
Silver obviously wasn’t going to climb forever. But, it’s testing key support. I’m leaning upset.
#4 AMD 0.00%↑ vs. #13 JOBY 0.00%↑
I’ve gone back and forth on this. Love what Joby is building, but I’m banking on a move back to $200 for the more established AMD. The technical support is just too strong, and there’s a lot of space between the multiple top and $200. This may look dicey in a month if Joby melts up, but trust the process.
#6 CMCSA 0.00%↑ vs. #11 RIVN 0.00%↑
Was leaning upset, but Rivian’s delivery numbers were pretty brutal. Going with the bull flag pattern Comcast stock is forming.
#3 MU 0.00%↑ vs. #14 APLD 0.00%↑
Tougher than the seeds look, because of Micron’s looming earnings report. APLD may have the short squeeze power to pull an upset here, but rising memory prices could mean MU finds its next leg higher.
#7 HOOD 0.00%↑ vs. #10 CPNG 0.00%↑
I like em’ both as bounce-backs. It’s a toss-up, but I’m going with the Amazon of South Korea.
#2 AVGO 0.00%↑ vs. #15 WULF 0.00%↑
Broadcom earnings was all I needed to see. Broadcom will always be in the conversation.
Theta Region
#1 GOOGL 0.00%↑ vs. #16 ASTS 0.00%↑
I have no clue how ASTS is a 16 seed here. It just secured an investment from AT&T, is a steady short squeeze candidate, and had a pretty solid earnings report. Alphabet could bounce off its 126-day trendline, but I’m going with the upset here! AST pulls off a Farleigh Dickinson!
#8 CRWV 0.00%↑ vs. #9 PCG 0.00%↑
CoreWeave is what you’d call a post-hype sleeper. PCG as the utility stock staple is pretty safe. Despite the short squeeze ability of CRWV, rolling with the cheaper-priced options that PCG has right now.
#5 PFE 0.00%↑ vs. #12 BE 0.00%↑
Bloom Energy is a play-in winner, swapped with Warner Bros. Discovery, (ineligible due to its merger hanging overhead of everything.) Unstoppable force (Bloom) vs. immovable object (Pfizer). Bloom stock at $160 is still crazy to me, so going with the safety of blue-chip pharma. May come to regret it…
#4 CSCO 0.00%↑ vs. #13 NCLH 0.00%↑
Betting on a travel turnaround for the summer, and maybe some SaaS headwinds with Cisco.
#6 FCX 0.00%↑ vs. #11 SMCI 0.00%↑
One of my favorite matchups of the first round. A true test of what you believe in. I’m riding with copper. Too many trendlines overhead for SMCI. Another one I may live to regret.
#3 NFLX 0.00%↑ vs. #14 AAL 0.00%↑
Man this is a fun region! While Netflix options are more affordably priced, the turnaround potential of AAL is too enticing to ignore.
#7 OXY 0.00%↑ vs. #10 HBAN 0.00%↑
Oil and banking, an old-world battle. May as well be Georgetown vs. Villanova. Both with RSIs in opposite corners. Going with the old bank, because its a slippery slope for oil should the U.S.-Iran conflict find a resolution in the coming months.
#2 TSLA 0.00%↑ vs. #15 HIMS 0.00%↑
Is HIMS back? Is Tesla (and Elon) awake? $400 can be a pivot point for the latter, with a 200-day trendline below an extra cushion. HIMS may go on a run or two, but Tesla will be higher in the end. By how much, who knows.
Vega Region
#1 MSFT 0.00%↑ vs. #16 TTD 0.00%↑
Microsoft. Sharpie.
#8 RKT 0.00%↑ vs. #9 CCL 0.00%↑
I was bullish on NCLH and don’t love doubling down, but hard to love fintechs not-named SoFi.
#5 UBER 0.00%↑ vs. #12 PINS 0.00%↑
Which dip do you buy? Going with PINS because of the Schaeffer’s Volatility Scorecard (SVS) and the short interest rising at an alarming rate. A 12-seed always manages to buck its head, its science.
#4 INTC 0.00%↑ vs. #13 IBRX 0.00%↑
ImmunityBio is the definition of a mid-major, and a fun one at that. But I like the 34 analysts on the sidelines with INTC “holds” that make overdue bull notes an intriguing contrarian angle for the semiconductor staple.
#6 NKE 0.00%↑ vs. #11 HPQ 0.00%↑
Nike has to bounce back at some point, right? Bueller? Meanwhile HPQ is just winding up with a whole lot of bearish sentiment to unwind. Rocking with HPQ.
#3 PLTR 0.00%↑ vs. #14 QBTS 0.00%↑
Love QuantumScape (Top 2026 pick) to eventually do some damage, just not in a head-to-head vs. Palantir.
#7 F 0.00%↑ vs. #10 HPE 0.00%↑
Two HP’s making it to the Round of 32? This is madness baby! But forreal, Ford has a double top formation that scares away any ‘buy the dip’ notions.
#2 XOM 0.00%↑ vs. #15 CIFR 0.00%↑
Hedging my energy bets, since I had OXY lose out. Cipher Digital is a year away.
Who woulda thunk it; there are a lot of similarities between picking stocks and picking brackets. Everyone’s strategy is different, but most feature some semblance of ‘upsets’ supported by safe picks, hedges against big swings, and overall balance.
And just like most brackets, it will probably be defunct by the Sweet 16, falling to Chalky Chad, who lives up to his nickname.
It was also a fun exercise to see how while short squeezes and growth stocks seem like fun trading ideas in a vacuum, but when matched up with institutional favorites and more established names, they lose their appeal. This forces you to ask the tough question; is this growth stock is really going to outperform something more established in this type of market?
Enjoy the games, everyone. Go Huskies, and we’ll to you next week.