Lessons Learned: What Our Top Stock Picks of 2025 Taught Us
Fourteen of our 18 picks finished the year in the black, five more than doubled in value
Sorry this is a day late, picked up a little mini flu over the weekend that knocked me out.
Happy New Year everyone! Once more, a heartfelt thank you to all of youse that have made this a weekly read. There’s a lot to be excited about in 2026.
If you’re new here (I picked up quite a few subscribers lately, thank you!) this is your umpteenth reminder that I’m not a trader and I’ll never pretend to be. If you’re a seasoned vet looking for the cutting-edge options trading analysis, I’ve got just the products for you.
There are a lot of you I think that were just like me in 2017; curious about the stock market but a little intimidated by the endless rabbit hole of data and general dryness of how its explained. I think about this quote in The Big Short a lot:
Mortgage-backed securities, subprime loans, tranches — it’s pretty confusing, right?" Does it make you feel bored? Or stupid? Well, it’s supposed to. Wall Street loves to use confusing terms to make you think only they can do what they do. Or even better, for you to just leave them the fuck alone."
I’m a liberal arts educated writer through and through, and you should always throw what you know. For me, that’s turning numbers into words, hopefully in a way that entertains and informs.
This space is an attempt to marry talking about stocks the same way my friends and I talk about sports, pop culture, and life in general. Just without the often-toxic Reddit or Davey Day Trade vibes.
Our Top Stocks of 2026 report is live. But before we embark on this journey together in 2026, let’s do one last look back at the year, through the lens of our Top Stock Picks of 2025.
These returns were taken off of 2025 (1/2) opens and 2025 closes (12/31). I know you might see different annual returns on some trading platforms, but these have been checked through ye olde tried-and-true iPhone calculator.
14/18 in the black… not too shabby.
Ten names outpaced the S&P 500. Almost all of the big winners had massive short squeeze potential. There was a little something for everyone; we nailed Nebius and Bloom Energy as part of the continued hyperscaler AI boom, but also Deutsche Bank was a shrewd counterintuitive pick. Boeing was a heady bounce-back play that should have you looking at Salesforce (CRM) and UnitedHealth (UNH) the same way. All different types of tech are represented, from streaming services (Roku) to fintech (SoFi) and everything in between.
Let’s run down the leaderboard and take a quick stab at whether any of the names with more than 100% return have any more room to run in 2026. And since we’re still in resolutions and goals mode to start 2026, what lessons you can draw from them?
Bloom Energy (BE) +290%
As data centers go, so goes BE. If you think 2025 was the tip of the iceberg for AI and overbaked valuations be damned, then this is insane value you want to buy the dip on. That washout at $140 has its 14-Day RSI working off its overbought rating, and there’s still short squeeze potential plus a shift in overdue bull notes.
The Lesson: Find companies that are tangentially connected to what keeps the lights on, especially when those lights are powering the thing that’s overinflating the market.
Nebius Group NV (NBIS) +197.5%
Get familiar with Nebius’ fascinating background. Oh, those Russians.
The double top is no bueno, but Friday’s 7.5% pop has the stock out of that downtrend channel, after a few attempts to clear it around the holidays. Shorts are piling on, and again, if you’re bullish on AI infrastructure, you’re going to love NBIS at $90.
The Lesson: In the same vein as BE, targeting the infrastructure of The Next Big Thing is a way to dip your toe in without overexposure. Extra points for finding a non-U.S. company with Nvidia GPU connections.
Rocket Lab (RKLB) +176.6%
Space, the final frontier. The Electron launch has been a resounding success, and more is on the way. It’s a little overbought and there’s no longer that crazy short squeeze potential, but that’s a bull flag pattern if I’ve ever seen one. The Neutron launch scheduled for early 2026 could be a massive catalyst. All systems go.
The Lesson: So much of the (well-deserved) hype around RKLB is the massive SpaceX valuation looming. Insane demand covers up a lot of fundamental warts.
Deutsche Bank (DB) +132.1%
Boring old banking! 13 consecutive green months!
The Lesson: When we first recommended DB a year ago, it’s 50-week moving average had crossed over its 200-week moving average. Pay attention to those long-term trendlines!
Carvana (CVNA) +111.6%
$400 is the short-term area to monitor. The S&P 500 inclusion is nice, but this just doesn’t pass the smell test, even with the remaining short squeeze potential.
The Lesson: Always take note of amassed disbelief in the face of steady outperformance, especially in a bull market.
Bonus: Coinbase Global (COIN) -11.9%
Who would I be if I didn’t address the losers?
Crypto wallet COIN seemed like a smart Trump play in 2025. And it looked like just that the first seven months, trading as high as $444.64 on July 18.
But it turns out linking yourself to Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies means you have to live with the volatility and chop. A second-quarter top-line whiff resulting in a 16.7% post-earnings selloff on Aug. 1 didn’t help matters. COIN huffed and puffed through the fall months to fill that gap, but then a crypto winter hit, with the stock now testing $240.
Last month, Bernstein has reiterated its Street-high $510 COIN, noting Coinbase is quietly transitioning from a trading-dependent platform into what analysts call an emerging “everything exchange.” Something to monitor for sure in 2026.
The Lesson: Know what you’re getting in to with cryptocurrency and BTC.
Keep on keepin on.