Gladiator Games: 10 Stocks Enter the Summer Arena
Plus, SpaceX options activity, Juneteenth seasonality, and a Messi moment.
Remember when ‘my Roman Empire’ was a thing last year? The joke was that most men think about it a lot. Just guys being dudes, you know. What I found funny was that, I SWEAR, I do think about the Roman Empire. A lot.
I took four years of Latin (retained none) in high school. I wrote a massive report on Hannibal Barca that kind of made me fall in love with writing and researching. I listen to The Rest is History. Rome: Engineering an Empire remains one of my favorite documentaries to this day. I played Rome: Total War, and redownloaded it during the pandemic.
Something about the rise and fall of an endeavoring, utopian society resonated with me.
Sometimes, I’ll think of ‘sell,’ and ‘hold’ designations the same way gladiators would look to the Emperor for the ‘live’ and ‘d*e’ fate. One month into our Summer Stock Picks report, let’s put the 10 stocks we chose into the arena and see how they end up.
(You can still access the report — and our initial analysis — in the link above for $5!
Assume you bought these picks on May 1, when the report was released.
Overall, an equal-weighted return of 13% in one month. Not too shabby.
Now, how to proceed, with two months left in our theoretical ‘buy and hold thru the summer’ window?
👍=hold the stock, keep on keepin on
👎= time to cut and run
Apple (AAPL)
We highlighted Apple’s 12-month moving average, a trendline that turned out to be quite the launch pad last month. AAPL has blown past $280 – an area we flagged in late April -- and is making another run at $300. Even if that round-number level proves staunch short-term resistance, the shares are up since May 1.
Emperor’s Verdict: 👍. $300 could be a magnet for a while.
Axcelis Technologies (ACLS)
The semiconductor supplier hit a record high of $193.78 on June 15. Despite the 32% pop since May 1, four of the seven analysts are on the fence with “hold” or sell ratings. Analysts changing their tune this summer could be supportive of any potential pullbacks.
Emperor’s Verdict: 👍. Up comfortably, even a pullback would keep you in the black.
Belden (BDC)
The fiber optics stock was flat until rattling off a nearly 20% pop in the last two weeks. Keep an eye on the $125, $130, and $150 levels, as identified in the report.
Emperor’s Verdict: 👍. See above. Let your winners run.
Chevron (CVX)
CVX just turned in its worst week since April 2025. Oil prices are in a freefall, putting pressure on the entire sector. If the stock can reclaim $180 and its 20-week moving average, there might be a ‘buy the dip’ play here.
Emperor’s Verdict: 👎. Oil has been up for so long, and if this is truly a summer of overseas de-escalation, there’s not enough tailwinds out there.
Energy Fuels (UUUU)
While the 100-day trendline we cited was breached, the 320-day stepped up. The stock just added 9.2% this week and still has massive unwind potential from an options and broader short selling perspective.
Emperor’s Verdict: 👍. Banking on that 320-day.
Intuitive Machines (LUNR)
LUNR was flying high to end May, trading up at $46.75. But the entire satellite sector has come back down to earth, literally. The 126-day (half-year) moving average was breached on Friday. The short squeeze is ripe for the taking though, and once SpaceX (SPCX) is done hogging all of the attention, the bounce-back could be swift and sudden.
Emperor’s Verdict: 👍. Buy that space dip.
NextGen Energy (NXE)
NXE’s 20-week moving average has been breached. Watch that trendline, because the short covering ability is there for the uranium miner, a sector that’s also ripe for government support.
Emperor’s Verdict: 👍. A long ways to go before support becomes a thing again.
One Stop Systems (OSS)
A 57% post-earnings melt-up on May 6 changes the entire dynamic of this stock. If you took a flier on May 1, congratulations. A bull flag pattern put OSS on its next leg higher, culminating in a June 2 record high of $20.88. Roughly 16% of the stock’s total available float is sold short, with bearish bets more than doubling in the most recent reporting period. Despite the huge profits, this might be still be a green light.
Emperor’s Verdict:👍. Not sure why there was such a bearish build. Even if there’s consolidation, you’re up big for the summer.
Syntec Optics (OPTX)
Another name basking in the glow of a post-earnings pop earlier in May. OPTX has made 10 double-digit moves since May 1. It’s finished positive only 16 times alone in that timeframe. This is a volatile one, but $10 remains support. Keep an eye on earnings for another profitability signal.
Emperor’s Verdict:👍. Let it ride.
Walmart (WMT)
Walmart gapped below its 80-day trendline in late May, and now the 200-day is doing the heavy lifting. The unwind of bearish bets has worn off, and the uptrend line has broken.
Emperor’s Verdict: 👎. Not retail’s year.
So cutting and running Chevron (CVX) and Walmart (WMT). Hmmm.
Ad astra per aspera.
SpaceX Options Trends Tipping Traders’ Hands
SpaceX (SPCX) options data is here, and its about what you’d expect that opened its first two days up over 25% and promptly shed 13%. Options trading began Tuesday, with a record debut of 1.8 million contracts worth $2.8 billion trading hands. Call options outnumbered put options by a 1.30 ratio, according to Cboe Global Markets data.
Fast forward two more days, and the ratio is now 1.06. The top trade is spread activity at the August 200 strike. Shorter term, the June 150 put was popular on Thursday, with sell-to-open activity detected.
With SPCX closing at $185 on Thursday, options bears joined the party, with 366,000 puts crossing the tape, outflanking the 358,000 calls. The June 175 put led the way.
On Wednesday, Senior V.P. of Strategy noticed a heavy day trader presence, with the top open interest changes coming from July expiration or longer.
Closing around $176, SPCX is in no man’s land for options traders—its ways off the $2 trillion market cap level of $151.98, its IPO day opening of $150, and its IPO price of $135. Above, round-number $200 looms but not overhead, while club $3 trillion at $227.96 is a distant memory.
Will above or below win the push-pull battle in the coming weeks? Watch this space, no pun intended.
A Moment For Juneteenth
The stock market was closed yesterday, to celebrate Juneteenth. Back in 2020, I highlighted two prominent black-owned companies on Wall Street. In a business where the human element is often overlooked, it felt right to reconnect the soul a little.
Six years later, Carver Bancorp (CARV) and RLJ Lodging Trust (RLJ) are off their 2020 levels, but up 30.7% and 53% on the year, respectively. But its still insane to me that last year, black or African American-owned firms accounted for only 3.4% (201,000) of employer businesses, with receipts of $249.0 billion. Just leaving that there.
I had Rocky pull some Juneteenth data for the last four years
Three down days vs. a 2.4% melt up back in 2022. Mondays have been positive 16 times and negative five times this year, averaging about +0.34%. Amid positive headlines out of the Middle East (for now), subsequently falling oil prices, and resilient tech titans, I’d bet on a positive day on Monday.
The GOAT
Hand up, I thought La Pulga was washed. At 38, performing at the 2026 World Cup was going to be a far cry from loafing around the MLS and scoring mickey mouse goals.
Then, this happened. His first ever World Cup hatty, against a plucky Algerian side.
Messi made his Argentina debut back in 2006. He was 18. I was 17. He has a special place in the heart of anyone my age that ever took the game seriously.
Do you know how insane it is to be doing it for that long? LeBron is the only equal as far as longevity, and he checks in at 6’9, 250 lbs. Messi is 5’7 and 150 pounds soaking wet.
I wanted to put that sort of consistency in Wall Street terms. Do you know how many stocks posted a positive calendar-year return every single year for the last 20 years?
None. There is no Messi equivalent in the investing world. That’s what happens when the 20 year window includes a Financial Crisis and a Covid Crash.
The two closest consistency kings though? O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY) and AutoZone (AZO). ORLY and AZO finished only two of the last 20 years lower. They’re both actually in the red this year, but let’s not count them out!