And With the 1st Pick... Drafting a Stock Team
Using your classic draft tropes, I drafted seven stocks that would make quite the team
In another life, I was working 12 hour days today, Friday, and Thursday. The NFL Draft* used to be one of the biggest weekends of the year for me. Now, I’m more Bill Burr:
“It’s like going to a graduation ceremony where you don’t know anybody who’s graduating and just sitting there … They’re gonna have the whole list the next day!
I’m still a sucker for mock drafts, though. It’s always funny the way pundits break down players; the same 10 buzzwords are used over and over again, year in and year out. Every year there’s a generational prospect or two.
Every unpolished athlete is explosive. Not athletic, but cerebral? You’re fundamentally sound. Jack of all trades, master of none? You’re versatile, coachable. Prodigious arm strength but lacking passing instincts? You can’t read a playbook.
There are so many similarities between being a general manager (my dream job) and and an investor (kind-of my job). Building a draft class (and any sports team in general) is the same as stock picking. You need variety, a mix of big swings and safe plays. Hedging everywhere. And a constant analysis of macro trends.
With that in mind, I’m going to draft seven stocks based on some classic draft archetypes.
*If you know what the title image is to this week’s article, DM me and collect your prize.
Explosive, Big Play Potential
Pretty self-explanatory; stocks prone to making outsized moves. Your Calvin Johnsons or Randy Mosses, guys that can break a game with one play. You want to build your roster around nailing this pick.
I searched FinViz for names with average volume above one million, an average true range (ATR) over two, beta over three, and short interest/float (SI/F) above 10%.
My Pick: Going with W 0.00%↑ because its one of the only non-tech names on the list, and I’m sure tech will occupy some other slots on my roster.
Toolsy, Long-Term Projects
These guys are ‘a year away from being a year away.’ Draft-and-stash. You always need a few lottery tickets, and that’s where you can mine for value.
For this screener, I filtered market caps below $10 billion, over $5 (to avoid penny stock nonsense), with negative operating margins, negative EPS growth in the last five years, but projected EPS growth in the next five.
My Pick: SMR 0.00%↑ can ride the nuclear wave, a sector that seems comfortable with multiple top players.
Plug-and-Play Starter
Instead of using FinViz here, I went with companies reporting earnings next week that have an upbeat history of post-earnings reactions. Strictly going off that data — and the fact that most of these are non-cyclical, safer names — this is the equivalent of drafting a four-year starter that can come in and immediately produce.
Here are the post-earnings histories:
Don’t sleep on Generac (GNRC), or outperforming Top Stock Pick CL 0.00%↑
My Picks: GNRC 0.00%↑ has the best combination of post-earnings magnitude and consistency. You can also swing for the fences a little with BE 0.00%↑
Strong Arm, Lacks Instincts
These aren’t projects, but they’re not your surefire blue chips. There’s some polish needed. Josh Allen fit the bill (no pun intended) and look what happened:
For every Josh Allen though, there’s a Jake Locker (or Jamarcus Russell). Buyer beware.
I searched stocks with average volume above two million, with negative operating margins and RSI’s above 60.
These are names that are for now pushing past profitability questions and relying on hype. The bill may come sooner rather than later. Or, the hype proves real and they take off, like Palantir or Nvidia.
My Pick: AAOI 0.00%↑ , and I’m probably trading up to get it. Love that stock.
Solid Yet Unspectacular
The Wes Welkers, Cam Heywards. Lunch pail, glass-eating guys. I took stocks above their 50-day moving average and 70% or more off their 200-day trendline. Then I narrowed it down to names that were positive across all timeframes per below.
My Pick: CIEN 0.00%↑, who’s consistency consistently astounds me.
Cerebral Game Managers
Low upside/arm strength, but can be a connective piece to the rest of the roster. Think Alex Smith, Brock Purdy. Ultraprocessors that don’t make a lot of mistakes.
I searched S&P 500 stocks with dividend yields above 5%, 1+ year of dividend growth, and payout ratios of 50% or more.
My Pick: VZ 0.00%↑
Been a fan for a while now.
Draft Haul Analysis
A 2026 draft haul of Wayfair, Nuscale, Generac, Bloom Energy, Applied Optoelectronics, Ciena, and Verizon.
Quite the fun team for a little 7v7. Let’s crack open the tape
With earnings on the horizon, not a lot of these names are options plays from a volatility perspective. But what I like about this “roster” is the versatility from a contrarian perspective.
VZ, BE are ripe for upgrades
Short squeeze potential for W, SMR, BE, and AAOI
The 50-day put skew on CIEN is very interesting, and puts are popular with GNRC too..
A lot of different ways these names can beat you (aka make $). Some safe picks, some dart throws, some high variance, some steady eddies. I’ll make a table of these picks next week and see how they do.