All the Stock Market Data You Need For Memorial Day Week
We're keeping it simple for the holiday-shortened week ahead
The unofficial start of summer is upon us, even though hot take; that designation should be reserved for the first 85 degree day of the year. Not only would that extend summer for everyone (except New Englanders, woof), it would refocus the holiday for what its actually for (honoring those that served in the armed forces).
At the start of every summer, my eyes get bigger than my stomach. Not at cookouts, with plans. Ambitious, lofty goals for the warm weather. Insanely long and random bucket list items trying to recreate the magic of summers past. FOMO gets the better of me when the sun comes out.
I want to travel, go kayaking, hit a pool, a lake, an ocean. I want to grill out every week, I want to eat corn on the cob and baked beans and go to a baseball game and watch fireworks. I want to drink water from a hose. I want to drink rose and bud heavies. I want to re-do my lawn, learn a new hobby, and porch sit. The list goes on.
Usually I accomplish half of those things, If I’m lucky.
This year, I’m diluting my ambitions down to something simple.
Touch grass.
That’s right folks, we’re initiating Touch Grass Protocol (TGP). Get outside, be outside, as much as possible. That’s why I’ve tried to streamline this Memorial Day Weekend primer as efficiently as possible. So you can get all the info you need, as quickly as you need, and you can head back outside to your family and friends.
Keeping it between the lines this week. Below are the weekly returns of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) during Memorial Day week in the last 16 years, curated as always by Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White.
Next week the SPX historically underperforms across the board, averaging a -0.25% return. Small sample size, yes, but a data point nonetheless.
Let’s pretend this is the start of the summer, and it runs three months through August. As we’ve been saying for some time now, Sell in May and Go Away is an adage of the past. The three-month period of June-July-August is the 6th-best stretch, by average return. As middle of the pack as you can get.
However, when Rocky pulled that same data 10 years ago in 2016, that Jun-Aug stretch was the worst three-month period of the year for stocks.
A lot has changed in a decade.
Let’s pivot to some individual analyses. But first, a word from the boss, Katie Schaeffer.
We don’t need more trading watchlists right now. We need clarity.
That’s why we developed Schaeffer’s Trade of the Week: one trade idea each week built around sentiment, positioning, technicals, and Expectational Analysis®, delivered with a complete game plan before the opening bell.
The service is normally $297/month, but Substack subscribers can currently join for $40:
https://store.schaeffersresearch.com/offers/2605/totw-40-mab
Below are the best-performing stocks on the S&P 500 (SPX) during Memorial Day Week, in the last 10 years.
LULU 0.00%↑ leads the pack with an average return of 5.2% and a 90% win rate. AMT 0.00%↑ ain’t too shabby either with a 3% average return and a perfect win rate in the last decade.
Lululemon stock desperately needs a win, down 40% in 2026 and hitting an eight year low of $116.62 on May 20. But even with all that technical breakdown, LULU’s 14-Day Relative Strength Index (RSI) isn’t even oversold! Yikes. Maybe $120 is a bounce point.
But it’s a stretch.
Real estate investment trust (REIT) American Tower (fitting for Memorial Day!) looks a little more intriguing? Note the double bottom. There’s a tremendous put skew in the options pits that could unwind as well.
American Tower is a geographically diversified wireless tower company, so there’s the data center angle to consider.
Here are the worst performers next week.
CMG 0.00%↑ with the only 10% win rate is a shame. Tech names like LITE 0.00%↑ and HPE 0.00%↑ have been nabbing new highs left and right. They have to be due for a breather soon, right? Right?! Even if past is precedent, similar moves wouldn’t take them out of their uptrend channel.
No real actionable takeaways, other than HPE is tremendously overbought, with an RSI of 78. (and that HPE was a disruptor in my Market Madness bracket back in March :) )
