5 Tech Sector Situations I'm Monitoring Right Now

Semiconductor seasonality, a big week for air taxis, and making some picks for the summer.

May 02, 2026

Do I contradict myself?
Very well then I contradict myself,
(I am large, I contain multitudes.)

—Walt Whitman, Songs of Myself, 51

If there’s one takeaway from my now 10 months writing on here, its that I am hopelessly scatterbrained. I want to cover it all, consume it all, and have a wide-ranging scope of interests. Case in point, my favorite podcast is The Trap Draw. Its a spinoff podcast from golf entertainment company No Laying Up, where they talk everything except golf.

It’s the dumbest, best thing ever.

Of their many schticks, my favorite one of theirs is the monitoring of situations. Any and all situations you can think of; primary hosts TC and Randy run down what’s going on in their monthly-or-so chop sessions. Topics include but are not limited to: the chimpanzee civil war, private equity goons sniffing around Jersey Mikes, and Jalen Hurts’ viability as quarterback.

With a new month upon us, I’m feeling refreshed ahead of summer. So I want to do my own chop session over here, featuring a robust agenda of stock market situations I’m currently monitoring.

Summer 2026 Picks

But first, if you want to do more than monitor, we’ve got the PDF for you. For $5, we’re running out our Summer 2026 Stock Picks report. It just went live at May 1, and if you hit the link below, you’ll get it for $5 bucks.

Click here to get your summer picks!

Joby’s Doin the Damn Thing

I’ve promised readers an electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) breakdown, and I assure you, its coming. But for now, sector staple Joby Aviation (JOBY) popped 6.3% on Monday after completing its first test flight over New York City. Last month, eVTOLs got some favorable legislative tailwinds. Step by step, we’re getting closer to a Jetsons world!

JOBY 0.00%↑ is down 31% in 2026 and has traded in a tight range for the last month, so it feels a little disingenuous to shout out the 12% of the stock’s total available float sold short. But my ears are glued to the ground — especially with earnings after the close on May 5 — looking for clues about commercialization and scalability.

Your Semiconductor Sector Cheat Sheet For May

The Nasdaq Composite’s (IXIC) historic win streak is nothing but quantitative fodder two weeks later. Such is the way of Wall Street, where we’re all prisoners of the moment. But while the Nasdaq has since see-sawed its way to 25,000, the PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) has kept on plugging, eventually racking up an 18-day win streak before giving back 1% on Monday. The subsequent two-day breather was short-lived, with SOX reclaiming $500 on Thursday and holding it on Friday.

Over that win streak timeframe, the semiconductor-specific index added nearly 45%, with Nvidia (NVDA) chipping in a 22% gain concurrently. The market cap leader has run its 14-Day Relative Strength Index (RSI) toward the cusp of ‘overbought territory’, while the SOX’s RSI is deeper in the woods at 75.

Factor in the inflation overhang and stubborn geopolitical impasses, and skittish investors would be forgiven if they were bracing for pullback. While that may come, many semiconductor stocks are entering a historically bullish month.

Below are the best S&P 500 stocks to own in May, historically, in the last 10 years. Of those 25, 13 fall into the semiconductor sector, including NVDA 0.00%↑ boasting a 17.4% average monthly return and 90%-win rate. Of those 13, 11 are SOX components.

Beyond their healthy May returns, here are some takeaways from that list of outperformers. Consider this your tech sector cheat sheet for May.

Analog Devices (ADI): One of the heavier put skews – across 10- and 50-day timeframes – on the list. Earnings ATC May 14.
Applied Materials (AMAT): A Schaeffer’s Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 92, plus a double bottom forming on the charts, and an RSI nowhere near overbought. Earnings BTO May 20.
Broadcom (AVGO): One of the top relative strength leaders. And with earnings over a month away, a Schaeffer’s Volatility Index (SVI) in the 6th percentile of its annual range.
KLA Corp (KLAC): 10 analysts on the sidelines with “hold” ratings, and a RSI that’s not scaring anyone.
Lam Research (LRCX): Heavy put skew across multiple timeframes and pulling back to prior highs. Interesting.
Microchip Technology (MCHP): A high SVS of 94, and 5.2% of the stock’s total available float sold short. Earnings ATC May 7.
Micron Technology (MU): A SVS of 91, but not a whole lot of contrarian potential for this beast.
NVDA: Cheap options, if you’re into that sort of thing.
ON Semiconductor (ON): The underappreciated one of the bunch. A healthy 7.7% of the stock’s total available float sold short, and 19 of the 33 brokerages covering with “holds.” Earnings ATC May 4.
Teradyne (TER): A rare relative strength laggard, but still in the uptrend channel.
Texas Instruments (TXN): Plenty of naysayers that can be swayed in the coming months. And is that a bull flag pattern forming?

Here’s a little secret; the reason for Nvidia’s stellar May record has been earnings reports that have fallen on May in recent years. Last May, the shares added 3.2% post-report. In May 2024, they gapped higher by 9.3%. The catalyst behind the bullish seasonality lies in the upbeat post-earnings reactions.

That puts four other stocks in the crosshairs this month. Beyond Nvidia, ON Semiconductor (ON), Microchip Technology (MCHP), Analog Devices (ADI), and Applied Materials (AMAT) report earnings during their historically-strong month. Below are their earnings histories, going back two years, or eight reports.

AMAT 0.00%↑ and MCHP 0.00%↑ are working uphill against some lackluster results lately. For ON, the options market is pricing in a 12.3% move, nearly double its average post-earnings move – regardless of direction – in the last two years. The same applies for Microchip. For the companies reporting later than a week ahead, their implied earnings moves were not yet available.

Beyond individual equities, Rocky also has seasonal data for exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) averages a May return of 6.8% in May over the last decade and is one of only two tracked ETFs with a 90%-win rate. So, if none of these quantitative returns appeal to you, and you just can’t find a semiconductor stock to trust, why not trust them all, together?

Write ‘Sell in May’ Article Then Go Away

Everyone’s got an opinion.

Here’s ours: Last year, the S&P 500 rose over 20% during the ‘Sell in May’ period and lost 2.4% in the six months prior to May. In fact, May through October has gained double digits in four of the past six years.